Look
It’s election year! Globally more voters than ever will head to the polls in at least 64 countries. Elections bring both the promise of change and opportunity, as well as the risk of chaos and uncertainty.
The South African elections will be on 29 May 2024. We are at a crossroads. Early polling suggests the ANC risks losing their majority for the first time since coming into power 30 years ago. Even if they don’t lose their majority, there certainly seems to be a shift, and their strength is likely to diminish. What does this mean for South Africa?
I include a link from political analyst, Frans Cronje, who takes us through the data from early polling and what it suggests for the upcoming elections - the likely outcomes, and the potential consequences.
For those that particularly enjoy data & statistics, I also found this series interesting.
As we think about what the future holds, let’s remember that even though the future is uncertain and some potential outcomes look scarier than others, we seem to be moving in the right direction. A coalition-led government is arguably a better reflection of our society. We live in a diverse, multi-faceted, multi-cultural nation, all with different views. Surely, one party alone cannot represent such diversity? BUT coalitions are messy, as we have already seen in parts of the country like Johannesburg. So, let's hold on to our hats!
Listen
In this video, Brendan de Jongh from PortfolioMetrix shows the intriguing link between portfolio returns and happiness.
As humans, we have a natural tendency to feel the sting of losses more acutely than the joy of gains, and the volatility of a fund can affect your overall happiness, even if that fund outperforms other funds in the long term.
This behaviour is part of Prospect Theory, a concept researched and brought to life by Tversky and Kahneman. Their Nobel Prize-winning work demonstrated that losses are twice as powerful compared to their equivalent gains.
This psychological phenomenon can have a profound impact on our investment experience. It’s definitely worth a watch if you want to better understand your emotional reaction to the performance of your funds – and hopefully, then avoid rash decisions in response to those emotions.
Learn
I’m a big fan of international author Morgan Housel and have shared one of his books, The Psychology of Money, in this newsletter before. He is a master storyteller who uses his stories to illustrate how our behaviour around money affects our financial well-being and overall happiness.
His second book, Same as Ever, focuses on the premise that we cannot predict the future. He suggests the best way to predict the future is to focus on the things that never change. For example, we don’t know when the next market correction or recession will be, but we do know that there will be one again. How can we think about our investments with this in mind?
Oenophilia
“Oenophilia is a love of wine. In the strictest sense, oenophilia describes a disciplined devotion to wine, accompanying strict traditions of consumption and appreciation. In a general sense, however, oenophilia simply refers to the enjoyment of wine, often by laymen.”
My father-in-law passed away in January, so our family starts the year carrying loss and heartache. Yet, we also begin the year with gratitude, family, and connection. It is comforting to know that we will never forget him. I know this because my own father passed away 17 years ago, and there is hardly a day that goes by when I don’t think of him, even if it’s just a fleeting thought.
And so, my wine of the month is Ataraxia Chardonnay. Some wines are more comforting than others, and a good Chardonnay tops my list of comforting wines.
This wine is 100% barrel fermented and carefully matured in small French oak barriques sourced exclusively from Burgundian coopers. This adds to the soft, creamy texture of the wine. If a wine could give a hug, this would be the one!
I hope you enjoyed this month’s edition.
Stay curious,
Elke Zeki